All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Huntington North Invitational |
Marion Invitational |
Northrop Bruin Invitational |
Flashrock Invitational |
West Noble Invitational |
Culver Academies Invitational |
XC Town Twilight |
West Noble Sectional |
New Haven Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/23 |
9/6 |
9/13 |
9/20 |
9/20 |
9/27 |
10/4 |
10/18 |
10/25 |
11/1 |
| Team Rating |
294 | |
291 |
320 |
614 |
327 |
756 |
379 |
310 |
347 |
334 |
282 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
291 |
320 |
336 |
327 |
294 |
309 |
310 |
347 |
334 |
282 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Huntington North Invitational |
Marion Invitational |
Northrop Bruin Invitational |
Flashrock Invitational |
West Noble Invitational |
Culver Academies Invitational |
XC Town Twilight |
West Noble Sectional |
New Haven Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| 82 |
Natalie Blume |
12 |
19:36 |
20:08 |
19:56 |
20:16 |
20:08 |
19:46 |
|
|
19:57 |
20:11 |
20:10 |
19:28 |
| 94 |
Cate Sunderlin |
9 |
19:46 |
|
19:31 |
19:40 |
|
20:05 |
|
19:49 |
19:49 |
20:05 |
20:00 |
19:38 |
| 96 |
Olivia Conlon |
10 |
19:46 |
20:02 |
19:17 |
19:20 |
|
19:46 |
|
19:44 |
19:39 |
20:02 |
19:54 |
19:55 |
| 150 |
Mavee Clark |
12 |
20:06 |
20:45 |
20:37 |
20:26 |
|
20:23 |
|
20:28 |
20:04 |
20:27 |
19:56 |
20:06 |
| 254 |
Claire Lane |
11 |
20:31 |
21:13 |
20:17 |
22:16 |
20:53 |
20:41 |
|
|
20:40 |
20:21 |
20:42 |
20:23 |
| 336 |
Avery Gagnon |
9 |
20:54 |
|
20:59 |
20:39 |
|
20:34 |
|
20:37 |
20:49 |
21:01 |
21:02 |
21:28 |
| 369 |
Mallory Fraser |
9 |
21:01 |
|
21:02 |
21:17 |
|
20:59 |
|
20:58 |
20:39 |
21:04 |
21:00 |
21:09 |
| 500 |
Aria Sud |
9 |
21:28 |
|
21:49 |
|
21:29 |
|
21:26 |
21:44 |
20:55 |
|
|
|
| 587 |
Rachel Kuhlman |
11 |
21:42 |
21:30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
21:39 |
|
|
|
| 626 |
Audrey Fraser |
11 |
21:48 |
21:20 |
21:00 |
21:44 |
21:52 |
|
23:24 |
22:26 |
21:39 |
|
|
|
| 649 |
Harshini Rakesh |
9 |
21:53 |
|
22:53 |
|
22:02 |
|
21:28 |
21:57 |
21:36 |
|
|
|
| 671 |
Maci Kochert |
9 |
21:57 |
|
22:27 |
22:11 |
21:34 |
|
22:16 |
21:36 |
21:50 |
|
|
|
| 693 |
Kora Reber |
9 |
22:00 |
|
22:16 |
21:54 |
22:04 |
|
21:51 |
22:06 |
21:49 |
|
|
|
| 702 |
Cora Evans |
10 |
22:01 |
21:39 |
22:28 |
21:58 |
21:54 |
|
21:49 |
21:59 |
22:08 |
|
|
|
| 729 |
Madeline Schroeder |
10 |
22:06 |
23:41 |
22:16 |
22:16 |
22:15 |
|
22:07 |
21:55 |
21:49 |
|
|
|
| 755 |
Reagan Ganshorn |
11 |
22:09 |
22:30 |
21:46 |
22:01 |
22:13 |
|
21:49 |
23:00 |
22:07 |
|
|
|
| 800 |
Elena Barb |
12 |
22:15 |
23:13 |
22:53 |
22:17 |
22:27 |
|
22:14 |
22:11 |
21:31 |
|
|
|
| 854 |
Claire Michael |
11 |
22:23 |
22:46 |
|
22:33 |
22:14 |
|
22:14 |
23:04 |
22:02 |
|
|
|
| 857 |
Marly Morey |
9 |
22:23 |
|
22:27 |
22:28 |
22:09 |
|
22:13 |
22:30 |
22:26 |
|
|
|
| 917 |
Elise Wloszek |
9 |
22:33 |
|
22:32 |
22:21 |
|
|
22:32 |
|
22:39 |
|
|
|
| 1,012 |
Claire Virag |
9 |
22:47 |
|
22:40 |
22:50 |
23:09 |
|
|
22:46 |
22:25 |
|
|
|
| 1,076 |
Lauren Johnson |
11 |
22:58 |
23:48 |
|
22:58 |
22:54 |
|
|
23:03 |
22:53 |
|
|
|
| 1,163 |
Lillian Fisher |
9 |
23:09 |
|
23:08 |
22:53 |
23:47 |
|
|
23:07 |
22:55 |
|
|
|
| 1,310 |
Hailey Morgan |
10 |
23:29 |
22:22 |
|
23:38 |
23:07 |
|
|
23:34 |
|
|
|
|
|
Samantha Hoekstra |
10 |
23:31 |
23:39 |
23:44 |
23:23 |
23:11 |
|
|
24:08 |
23:19 |
|
|
|
|
Hannah Haydl |
10 |
23:35 |
|
23:29 |
23:08 |
23:50 |
|
|
23:37 |
23:33 |
|
|
|
|
Carly Striggle |
10 |
23:41 |
|
23:17 |
25:57 |
25:39 |
|
|
23:46 |
23:45 |
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| State Finals |
98.6% |
14.0 |
369 |
|
|
|
|
0.3 |
0.8 |
1.8 |
3.7 |
5.3 |
6.4 |
8.3 |
9.9 |
10.0 |
9.7 |
8.4 |
8.1 |
6.1 |
5.8 |
4.9 |
3.7 |
2.4 |
1.6 |
0.9 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
| Regionals |
100% |
3.4 |
128 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
72.9 |
18.5 |
7.0 |
1.3 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.0 |
31 |
99.5 |
0.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Natalie Blume |
100.0% |
81.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
97.1% |
99.9% |
| Cate Sunderlin |
99.8% |
97.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
84.3% |
99.4% |
| Olivia Conlon |
99.8% |
99.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
84.3% |
99.3% |
| Mavee Clark |
98.9% |
139.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
21.4% |
88.7% |
| Claire Lane |
98.6% |
187.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
38.1% |
| Avery Gagnon |
98.6% |
217.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
4.4% |
| Mallory Fraser |
98.6% |
222.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
1.6% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Natalie Blume |
100% |
17.6 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
2.0 |
2.7 |
3.9 |
5.6 |
6.9 |
7.2 |
7.6 |
7.7 |
7.3 |
6.7 |
6.4 |
6.2 |
5.0 |
4.7 |
4.4 |
3.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Cate Sunderlin |
100% |
21.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
2.1 |
2.7 |
4.1 |
4.5 |
5.1 |
6.0 |
6.3 |
6.6 |
6.8 |
6.9 |
7.0 |
6.0 |
6.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Olivia Conlon |
100% |
21.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
1.2 |
1.6 |
2.4 |
3.6 |
4.2 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
6.3 |
6.9 |
6.4 |
7.2 |
6.5 |
6.8 |
6.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Mavee Clark |
100% |
29.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
4.5 |
|
100.0% |
| Claire Lane |
100% |
41.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Avery Gagnon |
100% |
53.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Mallory Fraser |
100% |
57.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Natalie Blume |
2.9 |
2.9 |
11.8 |
41.2 |
23.4 |
12.5 |
5.1 |
2.5 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Cate Sunderlin |
4.3 |
0.7 |
3.6 |
14.3 |
24.3 |
27.7 |
17.1 |
9.1 |
2.6 |
0.6 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Olivia Conlon |
4.2 |
0.6 |
3.0 |
13.9 |
25.9 |
26.6 |
17.5 |
8.9 |
2.7 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Mavee Clark |
6.8 |
|
0.1 |
0.6 |
1.9 |
6.5 |
18.4 |
26.6 |
29.6 |
11.0 |
3.7 |
0.9 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Claire Lane |
9.5 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.5 |
3.0 |
9.8 |
26.4 |
22.4 |
17.3 |
9.4 |
5.3 |
3.1 |
1.3 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Avery Gagnon |
13.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.3 |
1.4 |
6.1 |
10.8 |
14.3 |
14.2 |
14.0 |
11.7 |
9.8 |
6.2 |
5.0 |
2.5 |
1.9 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
| Mallory Fraser |
14.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.5 |
2.8 |
5.3 |
8.2 |
10.8 |
12.3 |
12.7 |
13.0 |
11.6 |
8.7 |
5.5 |
3.9 |
2.2 |
1.3 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
|
